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Friday, April 19, 2024

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (19 April 2024)


Highlights          


 • High likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (55mm) is predicted for the Western province and moderate rainfall (25 - 50mm) is predicted for the rest during 15 - 21 April. 
 • On average, only 70mm of rainfall was received over the country during 16 Mar - 14 April. Average rainfall for SL was 5.9mm and for the hydro-catchment areas was 4.0mm.
 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were  easterly from 6 - 12 April reaching up to 4 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted south westerly from 16 - 22 Apr reaching up to 3 m/s.
 •  Average land surface temperature was 32.7ºC in the last week and warmer anomalies of +1-3ºC were higher in all over Sri Lanka except Northern province. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal.



Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 15th April - 21st April:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 55 mm - Western   
  • 45 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa 
  • 35 mm - Uva, Eastern, Central, North Western
  • 25 mm - Northern, North Central 
From 22nd April - 28th April:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 45 mm - Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Eastern
  • 35 mm - Central, Uva, North Western
  • 25 mm - Northern, North Central
    MJO based OLR predictions:
    For the next 15 days: 
    MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 15th - 29th April for Sri Lanka.

    Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
    Pacific Sea Sate: April 15, 2024 
    The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region show a +1.5 ºC on the week ending 15th April, and a weak El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

    Indian Sea Sate
    Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5above normal to the Western and Southern half of the country in 26th March - 1st April 2024.

    Interpretation


    Monitoring
    RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Eheliyagoda.
    Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (9th April - 16th April) = 5.9 mm
    Maximum Daily Rainfall: 62.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.


    Region

    Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

    Maximum

    Minimum

    Northern plains

    2.6

    34.2

    25.6

    Eastern hills

    8.3

    27.4

    18.6

    Eastern plains

    7.8

    33.0

    25.2

    Western hills

    3.3

    30.0

    20.1

    Western plains

    10.4

    34.0

    25.5

    Southern plains

    2.2

    33.4

    25.3












    Region

    Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

    Hydro catchment

    4.0

    58.0

    0.0






    Wind: Easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
    Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country except Northern province, driven by the warm SST’s.                            
    Predictions
    Rainfall: During the next week (15th April - 21th April), fairly heavy rainfall (55 mm) is predicted for the Western province and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the rest.
    Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, North Central, North Central, Eastern, Uva, and North Western provinces during 16th - 22nd April.
    Teleconnections: MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 15th - 29th April for Sri Lanka.
    Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the May-June-July, 2024 season shows a 70% or more tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.         

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