Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 March 2024)

                                         

Highlights          

 • Dry weather conditions are predicted for next week while high likelihood of scattered showers (≤ 5mm) may occur from 13 - 19 March

 •  On average, 1/6 of the predicted rainfall was received over the country during 12 Feb - 13 Mar. Rainfall on 8 March was highest (115 mm) at Keragala (SP).

 •  Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 4 - 10 Mar reaching up to  6 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 14 - 20 Mar reaching up to  3 m/s.

 •  Maximum daily temperature was in Kurunegala (38.3ºC) & Puttalam (37.9ºC). Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th March - 19^th March:     

Total rainfall by Provinces

• ≤ 5 mm - Eastern, Uva, Central, Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Central, North Westernn

From 20^th March - 26^th March:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• ≤ 5 mm - Eastern, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Western, Southern, Northern, North Western, North Central  

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 13^th - 17^th March and moderately suppress the rainfall during 18^th - 27^th March for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: March 11, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 11^th March - thus a moderate-strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above normal to the country in 20^th February - 26^th February 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Keragala.

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (6^th - 13^th March) = 0.7 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 106.9 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	0.0	34.1	23.5
Eastern hills	0.0	28.6	16.3
Eastern plains	0.0	33.3	23.3
Western hills	5.3	30.5	18.8
Western plains	0.7	33.7	25.0
Southern plains	0.0	34.7	24.0

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	0.8	43.0	0.0

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, and Central provinces and below normal for some parts of the Northern province of the country, driven by the warm SST’s.               

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (13^th March - 19^th March), light showers (≤ 5mm) are predicted for the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the country during 14^th - 20^th March.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 13^th - 17^th March and moderately suppress the rainfall during 18^th - 27^th March for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the March-April-May, 2024 season shows a 40% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the southern half of the country.