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Friday, February 16, 2024

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 February 2024)

                        

Highlights          


 • High likelihood of   moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 15 mm) is predicted for the rest during        14 - 20 Feb.
 • Rainfall on 5 Feb reached peak (64.5 mm) at Kahaduwa (SP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment was 0.7 mm.
 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 5 - 11 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 15 - 21 Feb reaching up to 5 m/s.
 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive Indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake & Colombo (35.5ºC).




Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 
From 14th February - 20th February:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  •  45 mm - Eastern
  •  35 mm - Northern
  •  25 mm - Uva
  •  15 mm - Central, Southern, North Central
  • ≤ 5 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western
From 21st February - 27th February:  
Total rainfall by Provinces
  • 55 mm - Eastern
  • 45 mm - Northern
  • 25 mm - Uva, Central, Southern
  • ≤ 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western, North Central, Western
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 14th - 18th February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 19th- 23rd February, and near neutral the rainfall during 24th - 28th February for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: February 8, 2024 
The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 8th Feb - thus a strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5above normal to the country in 23rd - 29th January 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.

Interpretation


Monitoring
RainfallDuring the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:  Kahaduwa

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (7th February - 14th February) = 0.4 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 10.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)

Maximum

Minimum

Northern plains

0.0

31.6

23.6

Eastern hills

0.6

25.9

16.8

Eastern plains

0.6

31.1

24.3

Western hills

0.4

28.2

18.6

Western plains

0.2

33.5

23.8

Southern plains

0.9

32.9

23.9












Region

Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)

Hydro catchment

0.7

16.8

0.0






Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, Eastern, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.       
  
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (14th February - 20th February), moderate rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Western, Southern, Northern, and North Central provinces during 15th - 21st February.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8th of June.
MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 14th - 18th February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 19th- 23rd February, and near neutral the rainfall during 24th - 28th February for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.                   

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