The Final: NZ v RSA

There are some rivalries that transcend their sport. India v Pakistan, The Ashes, City v United, Spurs v Arsenal, Everton v Liverpool, Michael Jordan v Isaiah Thomas, Nadal v Federer. As much as the home nations, and France are united in their hatred of England, it is safe to say that rugby’s most celebrated rivalry is New Zealand and South Africa. Tracing its roots back to 1921, the Boks and the Blacks have played more than a hundred tests against each other. Underscore this history with the infamous rebel tours and the controversial 1995 final, and you have a tinderbox of anticipation waiting to explode.

This evening’s RWC final is only the second to be contested by these rugby powerhouses. They have had memorable matches which have not been a final, with many of them going New Zealand’s way – most recently the pool game in 2019 and 2015’s epic semi-final. Given the chapters that have played out before the final encounter at the Stade De France, it is fair to say the All Blacks are favourites for the closing stanza. Their loss against hosts and pre-tournament favourites France, seems a lifetime ago. Despite the convincing nature of that defeat at the hands of a young and complete French team, the re-inclusion of captain Sam Cane and midfield lynch pin Jordie Barrett seems to have revitalised the All Blacks. Since the opening game, they have steamrolled all comers. In their much anticipated game against Ireland in the quarter finals, New Zealand started off brilliantly and never trailed against the then world number one. Their youngsters contrived to score the match winning 60m try and the veteran came off the bench to win the turnover that sealed the game against a fatigued Ireland.

To add to the All Blacks almost embarrassing lack of opposition upto this final – barring Ireland – South Africa have had to play each of the top six in the world. Ireland, Scotland, France, England and now New Zealand. It is the most gruelling run into a potential championship that has ever been seen in the tournaments ten edition history. South Africa have been asked to run a 5000m race exclusively on the outside lane. This bit of information is not news though, and the draw has been known for over two years with Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber having ample time to plot the course. Unfortunately, there have been a few icebergs along the way with the injuries to Malcolm Marx and Makazole Mapimpi. Marx is the fulcrum of the marauding South African pack and his absence has been felt even though he has been ably substituted by Mbonambi and Deon Fourie who have played out of their skins. Mapimpi is less explosive than Arendse but a more threatening ariel player in conditions like this. To say that injuries have severely hampered the Saffas will be an understatement.

To that extent New Zealand are a purring formula one car, while the Springboks push their jalopy to the starting line held together by tape. The AB’s have also had an extra day to recover from their pedestrian semi-final, while South Africa had a short week after back-to-back 80 minute humdingers against England and France.

Erasmus will never be the kind of man to die wondering. He is extroverted, and until his HIA skullduggery (pun completely intentional) got found out against France, he is willing to push the rules to the utmost. Against the French he rotated his bench under the guise of HIA’s exploiting the rules on substitutions to give his player a rest. Effectively, he had about 9 men on the bench. This time, he will be under scrutiny, so he has had to gamble by playing only his favourite Willie Le Roux as a backs replacement. I say favourite, because Le Roux has done nothing to deserve his place except possess the required experience. Personally, I would have liked to see the exciting Canaan Moodie but maybe the next World Cup will be his showpiece. Most of the shock and horror at the Boks gamble has pivoted on what happens if Pollard of De Klert get injured. But that’s why it’s a gamble. Rassie is betting his house on the fact that his half back combination can make it through the game. He trusts the weather forecast enough to predict that De Klerk will not be running crossfield from ruck to ruck, and hopes to contain the All Blacks in a narrow, attritional, skirmish.

Despite Erasmus naming his team early on and goading Ian Foster to respond, the All Blacks have stuck to their mantra of focusing on themselves. They have named the team everyone expected with two front row changes on the bench. Taukei’aho comes in for Coles and Laulala for Fletcher Newell. This means the veteran Dane Coles – the winger trapped in a hooker’s body – has played his last game in a distinguished All Black career. They have chosen the youth and bulk of Taukei’aho against the bruising Africans, and gone for the experience of Laulala, hoping he will be able to combat Ox Nche. Laulala has also not featured much in this World Cup and will therefore fly under the radar of Wayne Barnes, who may not immediately clock him as a walking penalty. Nigel Owens’ revelation that referees watch tape and research players and teams is highly concerning, given how many preconceptions they may come into matches with. Sure, games need to be reviewed, but how enlightened do referees have to be to leave their preconceptions behind. No doubt plenty of work has been done by Barnes on both teams’ scrummaging before the game, and with Ian Foster confirming that set pieces will be the key, we hope that Barnes’ influence will be minimal.

It is no secret that New Zealand have been excellent at running the ball and hitting offloads at pace. The question is whether the St. Denis weather tonight will allow that kind of play. Everyone involved in the game would have looked at the forecast and it doesn’t look promising for the style of play that the All Blacks revel in. It suited both South Africa and England last Sunday, and like a turning pitch in Galle, wet weather will even the contest out considerably, somewhat negating the physical freshness of New Zealand.

The All Blacks will need to start well. They did so in Mt. Smart the last time these two teams met, and won the first half and the match decisively. The last game at Twickenham was a different beast altogether and South Africa won that decisively. This would seem to be the series decider. In the Twickenham game too South Africa opted for seven forwards on the bench and will seek to exploit that psychological barrier. Having said that the All Blacks are looking genuinely relaxed in the lead up to the game and a relaxed team always plays better. They seem to have got a shot of magic potion from the win against Ireland and retrieved their swagger and belief. Meanwhile, Siya Kolisi is the last man to swagger anywhere and has been consistent in his sincerity and humility with the press. It is unlikely the Alex Ferguson like Rassie Erasmus will allow any of these Springboks to get ahead of themselves.

The 1995 final, which many of these players were not old enough to remember, pitched a hot favourite All Black team against the crowd favourite Springboks, playing their first tournament at home. That team, contained Jonah Lomu and the fearsome All Blacks, despite being man-for-man inferior to their opponents except perhaps for Joost Van Der Westhuizen. Of the current teams, it is only Will Jordan that will indisputably make the opposition 15 while Kwagga Smith will definitely make the opposition bench. The teams are that evenly matched. So the start, the ‘mana’ at the haka, the South African anthem, will all play decisive roles.

As far as the game goes, there is nothing much to say. South Africa will launch their aerial attack and Mark Telea and Will Jordan should be adept in handling them. In 2019 it was two kick returns that led to tries for Reece and Scott Barrett, against the team that would eventually win the final. The All Blacks have any number of players, from Frizzell to Savea, to Smith, to Mounga, to the backline Barrett’s to Jordan and Telea, who can blow a game open with their individual skills and brilliance. South Africa do not have a single player apart from Cheslin Kolbe who can boast of that ability. What they do have is a determination and rugby nous to cast a bedsheet over the nest of attacking vipers the All Blacks possess. So far, they have featured in the three games of the tournament. Against Ireland, France and England, winning two and losing one. Tonight is unlikely to be a high scoring thriller, but it will make compelling watching.

On a personal front, retiring All Blacks will want to sign off on a high. It is a potential unprecedented third World Cup for Sam Whitelock, and a second for many others. Aaron Smith, perhaps the best half back since Joost bids adieu to the black jersey as does coach Ian Foster. For Siya Kolisi it is a chance to lift back to back Webb Ellis trophies. What a story for a poverty stricken black boy from the townships. What a story for a nation. Duane Vermeulen could be the first man to be the Man of the Match in consecutive finals. And many South Africans will be chasing their second RWC title. It is certainly not a game without its motivations.

The key match ups are how much good ball Mounga gets, and how well the South African wingers perform under the high ball. Faf De Klerk and Aaron Smith will be a battle to relish, and can Damien De Allende constrict the all-round ability of the huge Jordie Barrett. Discipline will decide this battle. Wayne Barnes does not like any loitering about the breakdown and that should give the All Blacks some quick ball. South Africa will desperately need to disrupt the set piece and the engine room match up of Mostert/Eztebet against Retallick/Barrett will be the key to the first 50 minutes of the game. After that it will be a question of Laulala against Ox Nche and how Wayne Barnes views that battle. Here’s hoping there will be no reckless or unfortunate clashes of heads and unnecessary cards that will blight the game.

Unlike many of its predecessors, this final should be one for the ages.