Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (15 September 2023)

  

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall (≥ 115 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 65 mm) is predicted for the Uva, Central, North Western,  Eastern provinces during 14 - 20 Sep.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 14.1 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 7.6 mm. Highest average rainfall of 16.3 mm/day received Western plains.

 • From 5 - 11 Sep, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 15 - 21 Sep, up to 10 m/s of northwest-southwesterly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km). 

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal. From 6 - 13 Sep, maximum daily temperature was recorded in Pottuvil (37.0ºC), Mullaitivu (36.6ºC) and Polonnaruwa (36.6ºC).

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 14^th September – 20^th September:   

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Southern, Western
•  95 mm - Uva, Central
•  65 mm - North Western
•  55 mm - Eastern
•  35 mm - North Central, Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 14^th - 28^th September for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: September 11, 2023 

El Nino Mode has set in according to NOAA since 8^th of June. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-September. El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023 - February 2024).

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 ℃ above normal to the Western, Southern, and Northern half of the country in 22^nd - 28^th August, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Kegalle

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (6^th September - 13^th September) = 14.1 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 58.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm. 

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	1.2	32.9	26.2
Eastern hills	0.5	27.8	19.7
Eastern plains	0.0	34.5	26.0
Western hills	9.5	25.9	19.8
Western plains	16.3	30.2	24.8
Southern plains	10.6	30.4	24.5

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	7.6	42.0	0.0

Wind: Northwest-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (14^th September - 20^th September), heavy rainfall (≥ 115 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 65 mm) is predicted for the Uva, Central, North Western, and Eastern provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Eastern, Northern, North Central, and Uva provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 15^th September - 21^st September.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 14^th - 28^th September for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November, 2023 season shows a 60% tendency toward above normal precipitation for the country.