Highlights
• Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country during 6 - 12 July.
• During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 4.8 mm and hydro catchment areas received 22.8 mm. Highest average rainfall of 12.0 mm/day received in Western region.
• From 27 Jun - 3 Jul, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km).During 7 - 13 July, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km).
• Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.25 - 1.5ºC above normal.Average maximum land temperature ranged from 29 - 32ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP models: From 6th July – 12th July: Total rainfall by Provinces
- 65 - Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern
- 55 - Central
- 45 - Uva
- 15 - North Western
- ≤ 5 - Northern, North Central, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th - 20th July for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 3, 2023
El Nino Mode has set in now according to NOAA. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean early-July. El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the Western, Northern, and Eastern half of the country in 13th - 19th June, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following area: Nuwara Eliya
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (28th June – 5th July) = 4.8 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 93.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Region | Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm) | Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC) |
Maximum | Minimum |
Northern | 0.1 | 32.9 | 26.7 |
Eastern | 1.6 | 32.3 | 23.9 |
Western | 12.0 | 28.7 | 23.7 |
Southern | 1.0 | 32.5 | 25.4 |
Region | Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm) | Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm) | Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm) |
Hydro catchment | 22.8 | 157.1 | 0.0 |
Wind: Northwest-westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperature: The temperature anomalies were near normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (6th July – 12th July), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, and Central provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Northern, Eastern, Uva, North Central, and Southern provinces and below normal for some parts of the Central province during 7th July – 13th July.
Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 6th - 20th July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.
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