Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (23 June 2023)

          

Highlights          

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western, Central and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country during 22 - 28 June.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 1.7 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 3.4 mm. Highest average rainfall of 2.5 mm/day received in Western region.

 • From 13 - 19 June, up to 15 m/s of northwest-westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km). During 23 - 29 June, up to 15 m/s of north westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km). 

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from 29- 33ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills. 

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 22^nd June – 28^th June:

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 - Sabaragamuwa
• 75 - Southern, Western
• 65 - Central
• 55 - Uva
• 25 - Northern, Eastern, North Western
• 15 - North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 22^nd - 26^th June, near neutral during 27^th June – 1^st July, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 2^nd - 6^th July for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 20, 2023 

El Nino Mode has set in now according to NOAA. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean mid-June. El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the country in 30^th May - 5^th June, 2023. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean.

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:

During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following areas: Kegalle, Ampara
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (14^th June – 21^st June) = 1.7 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 30.5 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.  

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern	1.0	33.5	27.0
Eastern	1.6	33.2	24.0
Western	2.5	29.8	24.7
Southern	0.2	33.5	26.3

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment Areas	3.4	32.0	0.0

Wind: North westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Uva, Sabaragamuwa, and Central provinces and some parts of the Northern, Southern, Eastern, and North Western provinces driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (22^nd June – 28^th June), fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 55 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western, Central, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Uva, Eastern, Northern, Southern, and North Central provinces during 23^rd June – 29^th June.

Teleconnections: El Niño conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

MJO shall slightly suppress the rainfall during 22^nd - 26^th June, near neutral during 27^th June – 1^st July, and slightly enhance the rainfall during 2^nd - 6^th July for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.