Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 June 2023)

        

Highlights          

 • Heavy rainfall is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Central and Uva provinces of the country during 8 - 14 June.

 • During the last week, average daily rainfall over Sri Lanka was 3.0 mm and  hydro catchment areas received 6.7 mm. Highest average rainfall 8.1 mm/day received to Western plains.

 • From 30 May - 5 June, up to 8 m/s of westerly winds were at 850 mb (1.5 km).During 9 - 15 June, up to 15 m/s of north westerly winds are expected at 850 mb (1.5 km). 

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Average maximum land temperature ranged from 32- 33ºC and minimum ranged from 24 - 25ºC with a drop in the hills. 

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th June – 14^th June:

Total rainfall by Provinces:   

• 125 - Sabaragamuwa
• 115 - Southern, Western
•  85 - Central
•  75 - Uva
•  45 - North Western
•  35 - North Central, Eastern
• ≤25 - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 8^th – 22^nd June for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: June 8, 2023 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean early-June. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with El Niño conditions. A large majority of the models indicate a El Niño to continue into the winter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5º C above normal to the Western half of the country in 16th – 22nd May, 2023. 

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:
During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area:  Ratnapura, Galle

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31th May - 7th June) = 3.0 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 183.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm. 

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern	0.0	34.0	27.7
Eastern	1.6	33.3	24.1
Western	8.1	30.7	24.5
Southern	0.1	33.0	26.2

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment Areas	6.7	97.0	0.0

Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperature: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Western, Uva, and Southern provinces and near normal for rest of the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Cyclone: The cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy' originated as a low-pressure area over the east central Arabian Sea and moved north-northeastwards. Then it intensified into a 'very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)' on 7th June and lay centered at 14.8 N, 66.4 E on 9th June, maintaining a 6 kmph wind speed.

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (8th June - 14th June), heavy rainfall (≥ 115 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Southern, and Western provinces and fairly heavy rainfall (≥ 75 mm) is predicted for the Central and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Eastern, Northern, Uva, and Southern provinces during 9th June - 15th June.

Teleconnections: A large majority of the models indicate a El Niño to continue into the winter.

MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 8th - 22nd June for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the June-July-August, 2023 season shows above normal precipitation for the country.