Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Post Hoc Ergo Procter Hoc

If you have studied logic then this phrase would be familiar to you.
If not, it means, after this, therefore, because of this in Latin.
It is also a term used to describe when people connect two unrelated articles to arrive at a conclusion.
For instance, a black cat crossed the road in the morning and therefore I had an accident later on.
I scored less in the exam because I forgot to wear my lucky shirt.
I am sure you can think of many such incidents in your life.
I witnessed one such incident on a global scale recently.
When it came to the news of Ronaldo bringing down the share price of Coca-Cola.
I really do not need to elaborate more as you are bound to have heard about this unless you are living under a rock.
Social Media was ablaze with people quoting, tweeting, and doing TikTok's about this.
In fact, some friends called me just to share the news.
From board rooms to Newsrooms people were discussing intently the might of the influencer. 
The power of social media. And of course David Vs Goliath and similar tales of such ilk.
Even I joined the bandwagon.
Then something odd caught my eye. Even though the graphs that were being shown and the figure of 4 BILLION DOLLARS made it look like a large amount of money; if you take a closer look, the price reduction was just 90 cents or 1.6%.
Which is not much, when it comes to a day's trading.
And then I came across this article in the Forbes Magazine which explained things in detail. Let me quote from the article.
"It is true that Ronaldo, in front of the press, declined to drink the strategically-placed Coca-Colas on offer. It is also true that, by the time the press conference was over, Coca-Cola’s value was down $4 billion. However, there were other factors affecting the beverage giant’s stock price."
Coca-Cola has 4.3 billion shares, and closed on Friday, June 11, with a share price of $56.16 for a market value of $242 billion.
On Monday, June 14, Coca-Cola opened lower, at 9:30 a.m. EST.
At 9:40 a.m. EST, its stock price was $55.26 (down 1.6%) and the market value had dipped to $238 billion, $4 billion lower than the prior day.
Cristiano Ronaldo moves the Coca-Cola bottles at 9.43 a.m. EST, and says “Água”.
In other words, Ronaldo's action did not have any effect on the stock price.
In fact, it was a natural price movement as Coca-Cola had just finished paying dividends to its shareholders thus making the share less attractive.
But some of us are prone to believe what we would like to believe.
So much so there is a phrase for it. Confirmation Bias.
But in the end, all it was is a classic case of "Post Hoc Ergo Procter Hoc".

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