Are the Black’s cracks showing?

The All Blacks and Springboks have played out another classic in what has now become a trilogy of matches that cannot separate the two teams on points. The South Africans created history by winning in Wellington in September by a wafer-thin two points, while the All Blacks returned the favour with the identical margin at Loftus a fortnight later. Last week’s return to Wellington couldn’t separate the teams with Herschelle Jantjes pick-pocketing Aaron Smith to score in the 79th minute. Handre Pollard’s nervless, drama-less conversion tied the game.

Both teams have now scored 80 points against each other in the last three test matches, sharing an away win each. This sets up a stunning prospect in Japan as the two teams open Group B in the Rugby World Cup. They each have one test match as preparation for that game with the All Blacks unlikely to be really tested against Cheika’s Wallabies in next week’s Bledisloe Cup.

Since the All Blacks’ historic back to back triumphs in 2011 and 2015, there have been some interesting performances – or by their standards, failures – by the World Champions. They failed to beat Warren Gatland’s British and Irish Lions tourists and also lost famously to Ireland before getting their revenge, eventually. The same can be said of the patiently launched South African threat which the AB’s have been unable to neutralise in its current form. The Blacks not been able to unlock the Springbok defence regularly, and were probably a little lucky to have gotten as many penalty shots as they did last Saturday.

The answer as to why the All Blacks have – predictably, for this writer at least – faltered, is quite simple. It’s down to one man. No, not Beauden Barrett – but Steve Hansen. Hansen has continued to grow in his perceived infallibility, until he probably began believing the Julius Caesarian compliments himself, where sycophantic rugby writers, adoring fans and perhaps players themselves, have made him believe in his supremacy, which has often been bolstered by the rather excellent crop of players New Zealand keep producing on a conveyor belt. Players, like Retallick, Barrett and Savea can generally save any coach’s blushes.

Hansen can be forgiven to a degree though. Who would have thought that the successor to Daniel Carter – without a doubt the most influential fly half New Zealand has seen – would have announced himself to the world in the very match that was Carter’s last, was unthinkable. His try in the RWC 2015 final put the issue beyond doubt in Carter’s swansong. For such a great talent to be replaced so quickly by another, seemingly as good or better, happens very rarely within a team environment. Muttiah Muralitharan being seamlessly replaced by Rangana Herath is the only comparable dovetailing of greatness within the same time, in the same team. The relief at this game-breaking talent replacing a player of Carter’s magnitude seemingly made all of New Zealand so grateful and relieved, that they were happy to ignore any deficiencies. For Hansen, who was tasked with replacing not only Carter, but Captain Incredible McCaw, Mealamu, Nonu and Smith (the country’s best ever midfield) and Muliaina, Barrett’s arrival was manna from heaven.

One can only imagine the Israelites trudging out of Egypt, finding manna, and then making damn sure they bottled some and kept it in the hope it never ran out. Moses would probably have been forgiven for it. Except bottles break, and manna perishes. (Probably, we have no scientific evidence for it, but it is quite likely). In the same way, the heaven sent Beauden Barret’s Messiahnic powers seem to be evaporating in the face of rush defences. A hitch that should have been obvious to the best coaches in the world. However, even if it was obvious, nothing seems to have been done about it.

Hansen appears to have forgotten that New Zealand needed four fly-halves to win their home tournament in 2011, after a lapse of 24 years since their first, and upto that point – last – triumph. Dan Carter tore a groin in the group stages and the picture of the star pivot face down down on the practice pitch brought a nation to tears. Colin Slade – another who flattered to deceive – was also injured while Aaron Cruden, the former junior skipper, started the final on a dodgy knee, while Stephen Donald ended the final on a dodgy career. What both Eddie Jones and Rassie Erasmus have realised that depth is what wins long tournaments. They have worked meticulously on that depth for the last four years and are now boasting squads that can play each other in a scrimmage and still charge full price. Warren Gatland, Joe Schmidt and Mario Ledesma have realised this as well, but are not blessed with the same deep pockets as England and South Africa.

The All Blacks however, while boasting enormous talent in some positions, really have no replacements for some key positions. Kieran Read has been poor since his return from injury and probably knows he’s only starting because he’s captain. This in turn affects his leadership, which has been weak. As good an athlete as he is, he’s not the inspirational, masterful McCaw who played a final on one foot. Damian McKenzie, another ‘x factor’ player who was fast-tracked for his lateral movement, is unavaible through injury. Ben Smith, easily the most intelligent back in world rugby – a man who rarely makes a mistake – is irreplaceable although one concussion short of retirement. If Beauden Barrett gets crocked, as even the best players do, you would have to wonder where the key to unlock defences is going to come from.

Since his move from full back, much of New Zealand’s attacking prowess has come from Barrett’s searing pace at fly half. However, his skills in terms of kicking out of hand, under pressure, and find runners in space, has been found wanting. He has great aerial prowess and as we saw in the most recent game, his ability on the outside when receiving the ball in space, is when he is at his most dangerous, setting up Jack Goodhue to gallop in for the Blacks’ only try of the night. The pass came from Sonny Bill Williams. If, however, Barrett was playing at fly half and inside Williams for most of the game, the monster Springbok third row would have denied him time and space. It ends up with him throwing the pass, rather than receiving it. Barrett has been shot himself in the foot, by being very good at fly half, instead of only being excellent at full-back.

This was the first time that we saw the Mo’unga/Barrett combination start a Test at fly half and full-back respectively. It was, inexplicably, only Mo’unga’s third start as an international fly-half with his other seven appearances being off the bench. He promptly proceeded to get charged down twice and then found Barrett popping up at first receiver more often that not in the first half. It was unfortunate that the experienced All Blacks inside and outside Mo’unga were unable to keep him involved in the game in the first forty with the rookie probably confused as to what his role was. It was rather obvious that the patterns were shot and players were not taking the same shape they would have liked to take. But while this can be put down to rust, and inadequate time together as a squad, there were some tell-tale signs of panic. Signs that an eagle-eyed Eddie Jones and other coaches would have picked up on.

Despite the try late on in the first half when Barrett actually turned up in the wider channels, the All Blacks had been starved of ball and not able to make much of what they managed to scramble. SBW was returning after a long lay off, and therefore subdued, although he did throw the ball that set Barrett into space. Goodhue needs a distributor to put him into space and Mo’unga was rarely given the opportunity to set his Crusaders team mate free. He came into his own a little more in the second when he took more ball as first receiver and barring the last gasp try, the All Blacks looked to have sewn up the game in the second forty.

However, the establishment’s insistence on thankinmg Barrett for his greatness, may have cost them the game. No doubt it was his home ground, and he is the senior player, but Richie Mo’unga is still the better kicker of the two. Why he didn’t take up the kicking duties from the start of the game is eyebrow-raising. Handre Pollard in the green jersey was banging them over without any problem, so it wasn’t a “difficult Wellington night for the kickers”. Mo’unga’s kicking performances in his previous Tests have been exemplary, while his form for the Crusaders has also been excellent. Whoever’s decision it was to name Barrett as the first-choice kicker was making an emotional, hierarchical, decision and not a rational, form-based one.

The pressure was telling, for even the experienced twice player of the year, Barrett. He caused much uproar outside of NZ as he was seen to first roll and then boot the ball forward in an attempt to buy a few metres off the referee who awarded a penalty kick just inside the 22. Calls of ‘cheat’ are going to be inevitable with a player this good. But as Steve Hansen has been quick to point out in defence of his key player, “everyone does it”, and he’s right. They do. However, what Hansen didn’t mention is that most kickers do it when they’re awarded a penalty kick near halfway. Very few kickers of international quality steal a metre when they’re inside the 22, just away to the right. In fact, rather than steal some distance, Barrett was quite possibly trying to steal some angle, and his not-so-surreptitious toe poke was also – like a few of his crucial kicks that night – off the mark. In the end, he tightened the angle by moving the ball forward, rather than to the left.

What it did show, however, was a sense of desperation creeping into the great player’s game. Players who are confident, and functioning at the top of their game, don’t do that sort of thing for such small gains. We’ve all seen players advancing the ball little by little with a roll of the studs over the ball, or walking up a few paces before the referee gives the mark. It’s not a biggie. At all. However, Barrett’s toe-poke seemed to have a little bit more unscrupulousness about it. He waited for the referee to turn around and then cheekily booted the ball behind his back. He knew what he was doing. And did it anyway. It may be fair to say that while “everyone does it”, we may not have seen something so blatant at international level, for such an easy kick. In similar situations Smith and Warner only tampered with the ball because they weren’t winning matches. The behaviour is tell-tale, even though the crime is innocuous.

Was this the sign of a player under pressure? Under pressure to retain his place as fly half, and also retain his place as first choice kicker? We’ll find out soon. The New Zealand way has always been about ‘team’. Kane Williamson’s Black Caps may have lost the World Cup Final to England but won the hearts of the world for reminding the cricket watching public what playing cricket used to look like. That is the New Zealand way. For the first time Barrett is under pressure for his place. With Hansen’s hubris allowing him to part company with both Lima Sopaga and the excellent Aaron Cruden (the only Lions’ test they won was when he started), Barrett knew he was unchallenged for the no. 10 jersey. Despite enough credentials at franchise level Mo’unga was given scarce few opportunities to build up his international experience over the last two years. Experience that is crucial to tournament success. All this while England, Ireland, Wales, Argentina and even France picked fly halves for experience while their first choices were rested. Not so, New Zealand, with their Barrett obsession.

Mo’unga doesn’t get charged down behind a Crusaders pack, but can shake his head a little at the protection offered by the All Black forwards. He can also wonder why he wasn’t at first receiver more often, when he is by far and away the best distributor in New Zealand. He can also legitimately wonder why he wasn’t allowed to kick first up. Will it do his confidence harm? Probably not, because he seems like his Crusaders mates will prop him up with their team culture. However, a World Cup campaign with only two real fly-halves, both under pressure from within and without, is not a good way to attempt a three in three title defence.

Since 2011, New Zealand have not only lost the gargantuan players mentioned earlier, but have also lost Graham Henry and Wayne Smith. One a brilliant man-manager and the other a rugby super-brain. The off-field decision making of the All Blacks, which is coming to a head just before the RWC, may reveal that it is these men that are the hardest to replicate. Another storming win against hapless Australia, may be but a temporary reprieve for an All Black team that has replaced their lost stars in terms of talent, but maybe not in terms of intelligence. Have they left it too late, or is this another master stroke from the inscrutable head coach? Japan will tell us.