The victory of the opposition candidate, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, in the Presidential election held in Maldives on 23rd, September, is a geo politically significant event. He defeated the current president, Abdullah Yameen, and took up 58.3% of the total valid votes. That popular mandate was not a victory for either the Solih or the Maldives. It is a victory for neighboring India, the United States and the European Union.
The incumbent President Abdullah Yameen has taken the Maldives in a new political path after becoming the President at the year of 2013. The Maldivian Foreign Policy, which had been fundamentally built up in the Indian dominance, was transformed in to the dominance of the People’s Republic of China.
In 2014, China’s President Xinjiang paid tribute to the Maldivian government and awarded the contract for the development of Malé airport to a Chinese-owned company. The people’s republic of China and Republic of Maldives reached some bilateral agreements and it showed the Chinese interest in investing in Maldives.
“The One belt and one road” is a geo-political theory portraying the political interest of peoples of China in the Indian Ocean region. The China Military-Trade Network, which runs along the coastal line from China to Sudan, relates to that theory. This tactical approach led Peoples Republic of China targets to have close ties with the Maldives.
People’s Republic of China tries to create a network among the ports of the Indian Ocean region. Over the past few years, their hard work was to build relationships with the Maldives. So new deals were made between China and Maldives. As a result, the Maldives became an enthusiastic part of China’s geopolitical interests.
The move of the People’s Republic of China in the Indian Ocean is not an innocent act. There is their own plan for geopolitical interests in all these interventions. The Free Trade Agreement with the Maldives was signed in last December and it showed the Chinese intention in Indian ocean. India is also keenly interested in these tactical requirements.
India is very doubtful in the Indian ocean region where People’s Republic of China executes their own geo – political strategies. The Chinese naval force in and around of Male seems a threat to India’s national security. Last year, a number of Chinese naval vessels were stopped region amidst of Indian protests. India has expressed in several times its views on China’s behavior in the Indian Ocean, but China repeatedly express that India has no right to intervene the internal affairs of the Maldives.
India’s insistence is that their involvement of the Maldives crisis is very important for India when it emerge as a global super power country. In such an intervention, the United States and the United Kingdom will continue to strengthen India. This is because the two countries are not in tolerant of Peoples’ Republic of China’s outstanding growth in the Indian ocean region.
Several countries including United States, United Kingdom and EU wanted the current president of Peoples’ Republic of Maldives to resign from the portfolio. But he was trying his best to stay in power event at 11th hour. In the end, the People’s Republic of China was to undergo a severe recession in the South Indian Ocean. The defeat of Chinese proxies will undoubtedly exert a powerful influence on China’s geopolitical aspirations.
Once again, the Indian personality in the South Indian Ocean can be strengthened. Not only in the Maldives but also in Sri Lanka, a non-pro-China government is in India’s tricky need. The road map of strengthening such governments is a top priority matter in US geo-political aspiration in Indian ocean. These aspirations are represented in “the String of Pearls”, a program of behavior of the United States in the South Indian Ocean.
The geopolitical dominance of the United States in the Indian Ocean was challenged due to the rise of China. But the economic dominance of the United States is still strong within the Indian Ocean. US economic-communalistic policies have curtailed foreign imports and raised bank interest rates. Hence, the dollar is strengthening and the rest of the exchange units are eating. Hence, not only the Sri Lankan rupee but also the Indian rupee is depreciating at a maximum of 9%. This is the result of the strong economic impact of the United States which continues to have their economic dominance in the South Indian Ocean.
33% of the energy requirement in India obtains from crude oil fuels and 89% of India’s oil requirement is transported via naval routes. Therefore, it is inevitable that an enemy of the India should not be in the Indian Ocean. Hence, the weakening of Chinese dominance in the Indian Ocean region is a strong geo-political interest of India.
Recently, the Japanese Defense Minister paid an official visit to Sri Lanka and pledged Sri Lankan leaders not to allow any Sri Lanka port to use for military purposes. In the meantime, the State Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan also undertook a state visit to Sri Lanka. Japan’s aspiration was to prevent the occupation of the People’s Republic of China in Sri Lanka. Indeed, these aspirations are not the motives of Japan. They are the goals of the United States. It is using the Japan to advance its aspirations.
Foreign policy is no longer a set of standard social values. It is difficult to manage the foreign partners with such a social values. Therefore, managing a few useful points can be defined as a pragmatic foreign policy.
Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was courtesy called by the Indian premier Narendra Modi who is well aware of this geo – political background. The Rajapakse regime held the close ties with the People’s Republic of China beyond of the global need to defeat the LTTE. People’s Republic of China was a key factor in the economic development of Sri Lanka. It also utilized its “One Belt-one Road” policy to consolidate its strength in the Indian Ocean region. Hence, the West-dominated alliance were in a serious dispute with the Rajapakse regime because of this relationship between China and Sri Lanka.
It is still not clear the back ground political scenario of that the former Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa was recently welcomed and greeted by Indian primer having forgotten everything. It may be because of the current Sri Lankan government, that deals with Peoples China and they may want to rebuke their counterparts. It may be for getting of promise from Mahinda Rajapakse not to obstacle for certain Indian economic targets in Sri Lanka.
However, it is not India’s geo-political aspiration to regain of a Rajapaksa regime in Sri Lanka. The Indo-Sri Lanka relationship has not been pushed to a grave crisis to create such a goal. India has a strong desire to access Sri Lanka’s economic process from the history. Due to such economic issues, Indo-Sri Lanka ties strengthened. But Sri Lanka has not in a position to accelerate the economic ties with India because of two main issues, such as balancing the People’s China and balancing the nationalistic bourgeoisie. India is therefore disgruntled. However Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who is due to arrive in India in a few days will provide a definitive clear answer to all these uncertainties.
In the Indian Ocean, powerful countries have their own geo-political interests. Small countries should follow a sensitive foreign policy and make decisions. If Sri Lanka can maintain a successful foreign policy by building strong ties with Peoples China, as well as with India and Western alliance, it is the basis for maintaining the Indian Ocean region as a peace zone.
K.G.Philip Shantha
HAMMER BLOW 