Which Pride Will Prevail?

It’s been nearly six years since a match this big has taken place at Eden Park. Even that game, the RWC 2011 final, was not anticipated to be as close as it was, given the way Dan Carter had dismissed Le Frogs from his presence in the group game. It was probably his most influential performance in Black since the Lions drubbing of 2005. His absence in the Final, made inescapable by the groin snap that shook the Southern Hemisphere, resulted in New Zealand domino-ing through two more fly halves before Stephen Donald won them the World Cup.

France have spoiled New Zealand parties before, most memorably in the RWC 2007 QF, once again with Carter being dragged off injured with nearly half an hour to go. It was a bizarre game which didn’t see a penalty awarded to New Zealand in all of the second half. It was also a game that Thierry Dusatoir scored in, as he did in the 2011 World Cup Final to make the All Black win wafer thin.

The injury to Carter almost certainly cost them that 2007 game and almost cost them the 2011 title, despite them being the best team in the world at both moments in time. Injuries have a history of derailing the best laid plans of the All Blacks. As do the French, this time in the form of Jerome Garces.

Why an injury to Dan Carter is a cataclysm, is self – evident to even Northern Hemisphere fans, given the man’s legacy. However, the injuries to Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty are less obviously, but equally, catastrophic. Both men are leaders. And with Kieran Read in the forward pack, and the back line being relatively inexperienced, both Crotty and Smith’s calming presence would have been absolutely necessary. Both men are also multi-skilled, in that they can kick, run, pass and are solid defenders. Smith’s inclusion allows Hansen to play two full backs in the back three alongside a rookie. His absence, and poor selection otherwise, left Dagg isolated in Wellington. Not having played a lot of rugby with either Naholo or Ioane, Dagg lost his confidence. He didn’t have nearly the same game he had a week before and trust is a huge factor in his performance. Rugby is made up of units. Every player in a unit needs to instinctively understand the other players. The front, second and third rows, the half backs, midfield and back three. These are the primary units. And if they don’t gel, your entire unit is compromised. Going into a wet, windy, Wellington cake tin, Dagg knew the high ball was his. He dropped more balls than Ioane and Naholo did, but also caught many more. Naholo dropped one under no pressure and Ioane’s misjudgement could have led to a try for a more predatory Faletau. When your full back sees that happening he gets stressed. And Dagg played like a man under enormous pressure.

The entire back line, apart from Dagg – including replacement debutante Laumape – had 67 run- on caps between them. Dagg has 64 caps in total. It was a mistake. and the mistake was by Hansen. Regardless of the weather, when any Northern Hemisphere team visits, especially the Lions, they are going to kick. To leave Cory Jane out of the squad entirely, and to pick Ngani Laumape over Jordie Barrett in the match day 23 was where the game was won and lost.

Laumape’s inclusion seemed knee-jerk and uncharacteristic from the usual All Black mantra of patience. The same selection ethos which meant that Beudan Barrett started 30 of his 52 tests on the bench. The same ethos that was slow to jettison a clumsy Fekitoa and underperforming Colin Slade, allowed Savea 50 tests before he was found wanting under the high ball and gave Dagg loads of time to re-prove himself. To allow Laumape onto the bench after one, admittedly barnstorming, game for the Hurricanes when his placed kicking, all round team mate Jordie Barrett may have been better suited seemed almost a gamble.

While everyone debated the selection of Gatland’s ‘Faxton’ (or is it Sexrell) axis, everyone missed the fact that this was quite possibly the tipping point of some poor All Black selection. Naholo for Smith is not a like for like replacement, and in the conditions (surely someone looks at the forecast, and also realises its Wellington), he was hardly the go-to man. The absence of an ageing, but an experienced squad player like Jane was sorely missed. These players who have played in big games, generally step it up.

To compound the uncharacteristic selection, the reaction to SBW’s red card was, and still is, unfathomable. Bringing in a debutante to plug a midfield hole was one thing. But it also exposed the All Blacks’ unwillingness to shift from their pre-match plan. Clearly, they wanted to attack the 10-12 channel. Most of their game was built around that. But to take off one of your most destructive loosies, and at the same time opting to pack a centre on the flank, didn’t make any sense. If you lose a back, then drop Sam Cane into the first five position, or the blind side wing (field position permitting) on defence, and move everyone one over. Either that or bring on Cruden to send Barrett to full back and Dagg to the wing. But replacing the hard working Kaino compromises the line out, the breakdown and the defensive line. Three areas in which the AB’s were outplayed on the day. Laumape adds to one dimension, which is the ball carrying, and the AB’s have two very similar players in the backline in Naholo and Laumape who don’t address the problem that the red card created.

Eventually, what last Saturday showed was that the Lions are a good side. A side definitely good enough to beat 14 All Blacks over the best part of an hour. Even that took 3 missed penalties from Barrett (his brother was kicking their last Tuesday), and two poor games by both himself and Aaron Cruden and a dodgy Faumuina penalty to create the loss. Fortunately, Garces, Vunipola and Itoje combined to keep the All Blacks in a game they really should have lost by more.

Back at Eden Park the discipline of the All Blacks will be tested. The discipline that dictates that one must stick with what works. If Smith and Crotty are still injured, then Jordie Barrett, Jack Goodhue and Malakai Fekitoa must come into the mix in that order. The think tank is unlikely to plonk two rookies at outside centre and wing, so Fekitoa may start. But if they do use him, Goodhue will not disappoint. The lad is perhaps going to be better than Conrad.

What the All Blacks’ selectoral hubris has done, is allow the Lions a sniff. And National Geographic tells me a Lion who has had a taste of blood is lethal. Despite all the aspects that combined to allow them a win on Sunday, they have now been given belief. And belief does wonderful things, the absence of which Israel Dagg will testify to. This will be a true test of character for Steven Hansen and his team. If a series loss will set up a non-smug preparation for the hat-trick in 2019. So be it.