There are more than one way to conquer a country. In Ravana’s episode, when Indians failed militarily, they resorted to treachery. Since Vijaya’s time, our recorded history recounts the many times indians tried to invade us. They at times succeeded capturing parts or most of our country, but never the whole country. The Portuguese and the Dutch also fell similarly short. It was the English who finally succeeded bringing our whole country under their jackboot. Again, their success was not due to military might but trickery.

GSP+

If we are not careful, we are about to fall into another trap. Actually this time, we are not facing one trap, but many from different quarters. The much talked about GSP+ is one such trap. To take us back into the fold, we must agree to 58 preconditions.

One would think considering that GSP is about trade, these preconditions will be specific to trade. One would expect these preconditions to safeguard the European shoppers’ right to buy without guilt. That is, the product is not made in a sweat shop, by minors or slaves, in a work environment detrimental to workers’ health or safety, under unreasonable work conditions, and/or for a pittance.

Certain supermarket chains hires their staff for a monthly salary of around Rs. 12,500, promising the opportunity to earn a further four-five thousand rupees with overtime. The outlet manager is hired with the incentive of about ten thousand rupees, if the outlet is managed without staff working overtime. One would expect the preconditions to safeguards workers from such deceptive structures.

Garment workers are usually girls straight out of school. They, either as a cutter in the cutting floor, or a juki machine operator in the production floor, or a packer in the packing department, repetitively perform a minuscule segment of the entire production. The knowledge and skill they gain is very specific and limited to their task. Career-wise, they grow neither laterally or horizontally. The maximum most reach is to be the supervisor of the floor. If the preconditions insisted on growth opportunities for workers, it would have been laudable.

Out of 5.1 million economically active males in Sri Lanka, over one million are driving three-wheelers. This is an alarming development. Most have less than the basic education qualifications. They do not work to an organizational structure. Thus, they do not get trained to work with discipline. Their exposure to vices is greater. If this deterioration of our human resources was addressed, preconditions would have been acceptable.

Instead, out of the 58 preconditions, only three addresses the above somewhat: precondition 39 states, “address sexual harassment at the workplace including establishing and re-activating sexual harassment committees”; precondition 51, “take effective measures on the worst forms of child labor (mainly hazardous work in manufacturing industries, services and agriculture) and child-sex tourism and precondition 52, “protection of workers, freedom of association and collective bargaining in the Export Processing Zones”.

CA Chandraprema in “The 58 Preconditions to Obtain GSP+” superbly analyzes what the rest of the preconditions spell for us. Preconditions such as number 30 will effectively make the Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court subordinate to the UN Human Rights Committee under the First Optional Protocol to the ICCPR.

“According to the European Commission’s conditions above,” he observes, “everything ranging from ‘public disorder management’ by the police in Sri Lanka, and cases pending before the FCID and Bribery Commission, the devolution of power to the provinces, electoral reform, the law of succession, the prevention of domestic violence, the minimum age of marriage for Muslim girls, will be under direct supervision from Brussels.”

To get and retain the GSP+, we have to repeal or amend the Prevention of Terrorism Act, review the Public Security Ordinance and delist the Tamil diaspora organizations in the terrorist list to Brussels’ satisfaction. What has any of these got to do with trade?

The last precondition is perhaps the most telling. It states that “Sri Lanka should set up a transitional justice mechanism in accordance with the Human Rights Council resolution. This means the setting of a war crimes tribunal with foreign judges, prosecutors and investigators, removing through administrative action the members of the armed forces suspected of having committed war crimes but against whom there is no evidence; and everything else the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government agreed to in the Obama administration sponsored resolution against Sri Lanka in September 2015.”

The European Commission, explains Chandraprema, is an unelected body controlling the EU. Its supervision is “so intrusive that it obviates the need for an elected government in Sri Lanka.”

It is because of this danger the British voted for Brexit, notes Chandraprema. The European Commission will “get your signature on a document and from that point onwards, you lose control over your own country and your destiny.” That is how even Britain was turned into a “virtual colony”.

By agreeing to these preconditions, states Chandraprema, “the fly has willingly and enthusiastically entered the spider’s parlor!”

The Chinese

In January 2012, Dr. Harasha de Silva pronounced China as an economic hitman. Very critical of the increasing ties between China and Sri Lanka, he charged the then government had agreed to expensive infrastructural projects that has no relevance to the people, but only to a handful of politicians. None of these are given as grants or financial aid, he pointed out.

“When loans cannot be paid back, China can demand to use our resources or that we vote in its favour at the UN,” he warned.

This warning people heeded seriously. Though an MP from the United National Party, people thought he was speaking as a professional and not as a politician.

However, as events unfolded, China proved to be an economic necessity. By analyzing through a political lens he failed in his professional capacity. It was not only the voter who got duped, but his own political masters. The renegotiated terms of the Colombo Port City Project (CPCP), has proven to be a costly mistake.

China must not be mistaken as a benign giant. Their stand with Tibet, Japan, Taiwan and India clearly shows that Chinese do not back down. Therefore, it is extremely foolish to antagonize them.

China has also proven to be the wisest power today. This is acknowledged by the success of recently concluded China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) summit. This was attended by 28 heads of state and government leaders, including Russia, USA and Japan and representatives from more than 65 countries. Russia’s participation in itself reveals the depth Chinese diplomacy.

We must thus never underestimate the value of China’s three principles – non interference with another country’s internal affairs, not seeking a dominant role in regional affairs and not desiring to create a sphere of influence. However, the incumbent government twice snubbed China.

First time was when after ascending to power, this government stopped all Chinese funded projects, including the CPCP that was inaugurated by no less than the Chinese President Xi Jingping. The government wanted to check the ‘dealings’. Speaking to the Sri Lankan public, they never reflected how insulting the whole drama was for the Chinese government.

In a bid to tarnish the Rajapaksa administration’s accomplishments, officials claimed that the Colombo-Katunayaka outer circular was inflated by at least 30pc. This was immediately rejected by Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. (MCC) – the main contractor to construct the Outer Circular Highway Phase III.

The Chinese ambassador too lashed out at the government officials for claiming that Chinese loans are high. Explaining the loan conditions, he asked if it is too high, why is the finance minister asking for another.

The second time was when Sri Lanka chose to defend India’s foolish arrogance for not attending the OBOR summit. Sarath Amunugama sympathized with India’s inability to be flexible with regard to the USD 50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as it goes through the “heart of Indian interests”.

Thus, we communicated our loyalty to China’s biggest rival. Furthermore, we made a big deal in refusing to let the Chinese submarines dock whilst Modi was in Sri Lanka. Doing it is one thing, going to town with it is quite another.

The third time, China might just tell us to get lost. Losing China as a friend might be our biggest entrapment. All the notable powers are aligning with China, especially with their OBOR. Then, we might find ourselves thoroughly alone and vulnerable against adverse forces.

The Modi Factor

Coming to power promising good governance, Modi hardly speaks of it now. Instead, he had virtually turned his cabinet into a rubber stamp. While Modi blitzing all opposition, including that from his own party, is India’s problem, his failing foreign policy will soon become a regional issue.

Initially, Russia did not give OBOR a positive feedback, notes political scientist Zhao Bingxing. The original route planned bypassed Russia, causing Russia concern of losing freight traffic. Russia also worried that “closer economic ties between China and the Central Asian countries would compete with Russia’s own integration plans for this region, which may further make the Central Asian countries drift away from Russia and embrace China.”

China exemplified their willingness and flexibility to cooperate by “China’s ‘creation’ of an economic corridor with Russia and Mongolia, which would connect the ‘Belt’ to Russia’s transcontinental railroad plan which was not in OBOR’s initial plans.”

Likewise, India too should have participated and worked with Beijing for an acceptable deal on the CPEC. Their absence highlights failure of their foreign policy. Sushma Swaraj is supposedly the minister for external affairs, but it is Ajit Doval who runs the show. He has neither the competency nor the mandate to do so.

Doval is playing a dangerous game with Sri Lanka. First on the pretext that the Chinese funded Lotus Tower and CPCP are detrimental to India’s security interests, he became a chief engineer behind the 2015 regime change. If the objective was indeed getting rid of the Chinese, then India should have filled the void left by dislodging the Chinese in terms of investments. This they did not do and it seemed that India made a strategic error when this government had to crawl back into Chinese favor.

However, Modi’s recently concluded visit revealed a much sinister plan. He travelled to Dickoya to open a hospital already functioning. It was not that he was duped, but it was merely an excuse to address the upcountry Tamils. A head of state visiting another country to address only one community itself shows India’s failing foreign policy.

Though they are of Indian origin and were rendered stateless after Sri Lanka regained independence, they have been ignored by Nehru, Shastri and Gandhi. During Indian sponsored terrorism, the upcountry Tamil leaders wisely stayed out of the conflict. With Modi as the first Indian PM to address them, where he made a concerted effort to show that he is their leader, this may well change.

When he said that Sri Lankan teas became world famous because of Indian blood and sweat, he is planting dangerous seeds. He fails to mention that Sri Lanka has looked after them as equal citizens. Introducing standardization is widely interpreted as an act brought in deliberately to discriminate the Tamils. Yet, it is that very act that allows upcountry Tamils an opportunity to enter Sri Lankan universities. Today, this community is moving into other professions do not want to be called estate Tamils, but upcountry Tamils. Considered as low castes, whether such social migration is possible in India is debatable.

Back in Colombo, Modi articulates future plans that is news to Sri Lankans. He sees economic and social well being of Sri Lankans linked to that of 1.25 billion Indians. How could that be? He sees security of our lands and waters as indivisible. Again how?

We should sit up and take note of these pronouncements and its implications. Unfortunately, we are too distracted over Mahinda Rajapaksa’s sudden meeting with Modi to worry of such things. Whether MR went from black flag to white or he tweaked the government’s nose is not the issue. The issue is, with Doval prominently in the picture, is Modi trying an Indira Gandhi with the upcountry Tamils?