I was talking to a friend on Friday about how election results might turn out next week. Most Sri Lankans believe that it might become a tight squeeze for the eventual winner. I wanted to see if I could build a simple model for this thing to see what the fuss was about.

In this I’ve looked at a few historical elections and analyzed the general trend. I’ve left most of the UPFA percentages from January 8th intact but have dissected the anti- Mahinda block into the JVP, DP and TNA.

While I’m no political analyst, it doesn’t take political rocket science to figure out that Parliament 2015 is going to be built on crossovers and buttresses. No wonder you will find many people (6151 of them) willing to spend millions of rupees for a job that pays LKR 54,000 a month.

PS- You can enter your own numbers to see how certain scenarios might play out.On the input tab, you will see highlighted percentages

Adjust these percentages according to your estimates while making sure the “remaining” figure balances out to 0% and – .