Presidential Election 2015; The Tale of Two Horses and Other Stories

Only a handful of days left for the Presidential Election. Public engagement in the process is to the extent never before. In a previous blogpost, I’ve compared this election in to a poker game with the country at stake. It can also similar to a great horse-race where only two horses are participating and the twenty million people have bet all of theirs and their future generations’ lives on the outcome of it. At the heat of the preparations to the race, the people have polarized themselves into two camps helping either of the horses but nobody seem to care about the long-term impact on winning of either horse. It is well known fact that while horse-racing ruined many lives and the only winners are the jockeys, race-organizers and betting center owners. As a safety measure it is important not to bet all your savings on one horse. Nevertheless we should as the question from ourselves; ‘will the future be better?’

There are 14 million registered voters in the country. Although Sri Lanka is the Asia’s first democracy, the public conscience on democracy and politics are not influenced by rationality or policy. The factors that influenced their political opinion are discussed in the previous blogpost. But in the end of the day the problems facing the Sri Lankans except the chosen few are the same and still the improvement is at a snail pace. Economy remains the prominent worry among the majority. The government is unveiling its development achievement like never before. Cities, at least Colombo and suburbs are getting better. New roads are being constructed, train links to Northern parts have recommenced, and ambitious real estate projects are spreading like wildfire in lavish neighborhoods in Colombo city and not to mention the newly built Airport and Seaport in Hambanthota district. For an alien eyes looking in a birds-eye view, Sri Lanka appears as the next Dubai or the true ‘Wonder of Asia. Have the lives of the Sri Lankans been reborn have their living conditions seem sound or are they contented with their country?

Sri Lanka was a war-ravaged country for more than 30 years. The logical reason for dragging the war for so long was the lack of strong political leadership. The leadership given by the President Manhinda Rajapaksha and the Secretary of Defense was the main reason for quick and relatively just ending for the war. Half of the credit should go to the former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka who was stripped from his ranks for contesting against the president in the 2010 Presidential Election. Although Mr Rajapaksha was bombarding his post-war conduct and asserting that he has kept all the promises of his election manifesto, the only thing he has delivered was a country free from LTTE terrorist organization. Majority of Sri Lankans consider that is a legitimate reason for giving Mr. Rajapaksha another term. When a person is saved from the clutches of death, it is natural that he gets obliged to the savior forever. Most of the village communities in northern frontier are more than willing to vote for Mr. Rajapaksha regardless of his questionable post-war conduct.

Mr. Rajapaksha might have come with the legitimate objective in the first term to bring peace to the country either by waging a war or through peace talks. When the peace talks have failed, he boldly took the path of war (of course with the pressure from Sinhala nationalist parties like Jathika Hela Urumaya). After defeating the LTTE militarily, he had the golden opportunity none had before. He could have gone into the history books as the leader who not only waged a war and defeated a terrorist organization but as the person who brought a lasting peace and prosperity for the country but nothing has been done to address the root cause in the ethnic problem. There were two insurgencies in the past; in 1971 and 1988-89. The leaders back then at least partially try to address the causes for those uprisings but for the civil war, no progress whatsoever except for the LLRC report whose recommendations were not implemented at all although Mr Rajapaksha promised in his election manifesto. Hatred among communities is now at record high.

There are two main black marks for Mr. Rajapaksha’s government, long term economic decay and the erosion of democracy. Although it is good to have big development projects, a developing country like ours needs to prioritize its development goals. Lack of infrastructure still haunts rural communities. Irrigation, road network are underdeveloped. Tanks and canals are under-developed. Many small tanks in the North Central province are abandoned. It is not wrong to say that the irrigation system is in a poor state than which it was in 1500 years ago at the golden age Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa kingdoms. The main problem in the post-war development in Sri Lanka is the lack of prioritization of the development goals. Since a considerable amount of Sri Lankans still depend on the agriculture sector and primary industries, road network in the rural areas should have been developed. Decaying irrigation system should have been repaired to its full potential.

Concessions should have been given to the small industries sector but the government is at a spending frenzy on mega-development projects such as airports, seal-ports, high-rise towers which have little or no use apart from digital transmission and tourist attraction, expressways and performing arts theaters in which it takes a fortune to watch a show let alone to host one. Of course there is the contribution to the national economy from those projects but the positive impact on the livelihoods of the common man is nonexistent.  What is the use of development projects which doesn’t contribute to the benefit of the people? Fancy projects to show that a country is on a par with other developed countries are a common occurrence in oil-rich Middle Eastern countries. Can a country like Sri Lanka who barely lifting its head off from a civil war affords such petty things?

It is important to make the country attractive by building public spaces and extravagant waterfront properties. It is good to give foreign investors the chance to develop luxurious real estate projects. Indirectly it may create a positive impact on the booming tourism trade. But first things first; is it really important to fund the less important projects while neglecting infrastructural development in the key areas of the economy from which the majority of the people make their living from? Can they bask on the glory of Nelum Pokuna Mahinda Rajapaksha Rangahala, Maththara Mahinda Rajapaksha Airport, Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksha Port and Nelum Kuluna while struggling to get their food on the table? These projects can be done after ensuring the basic needs of the people are met. First there should be adequate number of industries or at least a long term plan to build heavy-industries for the building of a port in a remote part of Sri Lanka. Road network in the entire country should be brought to standard before building expressways crisscrossing the country. Most of these projects are funded by China. While giving the monetary support, Chinese companies undertake their construction by Chinese engineers and workers. They shrewdly pump the money back to China while making un indebted to China for the generations to come.

The problem not lies with these projects. We never think that these projects are not needed for a country but the time period of the projects is the problematic factor. The government always finishes last things first while the things needed to be done beforehand are either deliberately delayed or not done at all. That is the fundamental problem in the so called ‘development’ in this country. Unimportant but colossal projects fuel the President’s ego and carry on his legacy while extravagant commissions and frauds benefit the political goons behind him.

Today although there are petty concessions on fertilizers, lack of funding for the irrigation and long term agricultural development are creating a long term deterioration of agricultural sector. Today the agrarian community is facing a debt crisis like never before. Almost all of the small and medium sector agriculturalists are burdened with debt. People quitting the agricultural sector are a common occurrence. Still the government hasn’t a plan for agricultural exports even though there are plenty of opportunities in foreign market for staple crops and non-traditional exports. This is the bitter situation in a country ruled by a government which boasts about self-sufficiency in food while depending on foreign imports for the basic staple foods.

Situation in small industries is also bleak. Lack of demand in the local sector, high energy cost and inability to access foreign markets are the main problems in this sector. Electricity tariff for small industries sector is among the highest in the developing world. Only the multinational companies and mega-industries have the chance to survive in Sri Lanka making small industries an endangered species. The government is boasting about the emerging knowledge-based economy. That sector shows a marginal growth for now but with the brain-drain due to the unsatisfactory economic and social conditions in Sri Lanka will surely pose a major threat to this. Even now most of the upper-middle class educated people and students are not planning to stay in this country. Australia, New Zealand or Europe is their safe heaven. With the lack of funding for state sector education and higher education, other developing countries may soon take whatever small share secured by Sri Lankans in the new knowledge economy.

Erosion on democracy is the next problem. Mr. Rajapasha promised twice to abolish the executive presidency and failed. He had the chance but he deliberately retained from doing so. It is a truth that the power corrupts man. When someone has power above all, even above the law of the country, it is natural to feel greedy to secure the power forever and seek for more power. Mr. Rajapaksha did exactly that. He abolished the 17^th Amendment and brought the 18^th Amendment which removes the term limit of reappointment for the president and independent commissions implemented by the 17^th Amendment at the mercy of the President. We cannot blame solely the President. Two-third of the Parliament, even the people shouting against the President have voted in favor of it giving Rajapaksha a free reign to bring the democracy into the guillotine.

Are people willing to pledge allegiance to Mr. Rajapaksha? Of course there are. People may vote for Mr. Rajapaksha for mainly two reasons. One is on the gratitude for ending the war bringing peace. For the people in rural areas directly affected by the war and frontier communities in the North-Central and Eastern provinces, Mr. Rajapaksha is more of a God-like figure. It doesn’t matter even if he eradicates the democracy. People feel safe in his hands. There were no bomb-blasts in the country after the war. People can travel without any fear without the presence of military roadblocks and unpleasant security checks so it is natural that people tend to deeply fall in love with Mr. Rajapaksha as a strong personality with reassuring words is always the choice of the majority of people. For the supporters of Mr. Rajapaksha camp, jobs and business opportunities are not rare. It is just like ‘if you are with us, you’ll be alright, but if you go against us, that’s the end of you’. Since the politicization of the state sector people have to be on the winners’ side to survive. That may motivate many to vote for Mr. Rajapaksha.

On the other side, the join opposition is no good either. It is a common problem in Sri Lankan politics. There is no one whose hands are clean. People at the opposition will do the same if they got the power. This leaves the voters frustrated and may prevent a lot from either not voting for any main candidate or refusing to take part in the election process while leads to the death of the fundamental principal of democracy. Nevertheless, it is a progressive move by the opposition to pledge for a chance in the whole political system, a ‘new political culture’, they say. In theory it is appealing. Abolishing the executive presidency, reinstating the independent commission and making the executive responsible for the Parliament are progressive moves. They are also not impossible to achieve.

What Sri Lanka need is a change in the system, not a face change. What if the common opposition candidate be just like Mr. Rajapaksha. People may not be willing to take the risk of chasing one oppressor and electing another one same or even worse than the previous one. A system with properly implemented checks and balances is the only hope for Sri Lanka. It is not important who is going to give it. Mr Rajapaksha, the common candidate or anyone else but people should press on curbing of executive power, making the corruption and fraud minimized if not impossible and above all prioritizing the development goals serving everyone equally. We all are looking forward on 8^th of January with crossed finders and pounding hearts for a better election, a better system and a better country.