Presidential Election 2015; The Political Gamble

Eighth of January will be one of the most important dates in Sri Lankan politics as Sri Lankans gather around polling stations to choose a candidate for the highest office. The stage is all set for the fiercest battle ever. In the midst of crossovers which are affectionately named as ‘jumping from one party to another’ surpassing the standards of Olympic level high jumpers, heated political talks and never ending violence and show of power, the whole Sri Lankan society has gone into some form of dizziness or a political ‘coma’ blinded by the exquisite campaigns of both the common opposition and the governing party. Just get rid of the heated popular political extravaganza for a minute! What is your true notion of the presidential election? What is your choice and what do you expect from the newly elected president?

Do Sri Lankans need an election at the first place? This election was plagued by controversy even at its inception. Former Chief Justice Sarath Nanda Silva had pointed out that the incumbent president can’t call for another election at this time and he can’t seek another term as he becomes unqualified for that with the swearing-in for his second term in January 2010 but with the backing of the full-bench of the Supreme Court the President has proved his legitimacy for calling an election. [This issue was discussed in a blog post of this writer]. Even though the President skillfully evaded the legal barriers a moral question is before him for the reason why he seeks another term just after 4 years. It is apparent that the progress of the previous election manifesto was non-existent. Even according to the Sri Lankan political standards by which the ability to stick to political promises was not looked as a priority in when choosing a candidate in the election, the incumbent President cannot be considered as a person who has done what he promises except the defeat of the LTTE militarily. With his marginal win (ironically it was the LTTE who has helped him to win the election in 2005 by ordering the people in north and east to boycott the election) in 2005, he kept his most important promise. Although, the incumbent President and his defense secretary was not the sole duo to be hailed as heroes, their contribution and the political leadership was outstanding. The history should give them the credit in leading the vanguard against terrorism and getting Sri Lanka rid of her gravest problem partially. The fame it had brought the President was reflected in 2010 election in which the President had sought another term with the promise of developing the war-ravaged nation.

There were allegations of misuse of the ability to call for an early election just after 4 years in to the Presidential term. Since it was introduced in the 3^rd amendment for the Constitution, it acted as an insurance policy for further holding into power for a ruler with a degrading popularity. For example, a newly appointed president can work progressively for 4 years enacting popular reforms while gaining support of the majority of the people and run for re-election after that and secure another 6 years at the office. Combined with removal of the limitation to be appointed as the President, this deadly cocktail acts as a recipe for an authoritarian leader to forever hold in to power. Change of the governments is an essence of democracy. With the ever powerful Executive Presidency and the President of the country being the party leader of the winning party, the Parliament comes under the indirect control of the President. It will hinder the balance of power and lead to de–facto dictatorship. Although, frequent change of powers may cause problems regarding long-term policies, it will be good for a democratic country. The exact opposite happens in Sri Lanka right now.

There are two main candidates; the incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksha from the UPFA and Maithreepala Sirisena, the former Minister of health, the former general secretary of the SLFP from the common opposition. Mr Rajapaksha standing strong as ever, winning every election with an overwhelming majority. His main political slogan was ‘A Secured Nation’. Development is the priority in his election manifesto. He surely has a bunch of aces up in his sleeve. Big development projects funded by Chinese loans are the talk of the town. With new harbors, air-port, and expressways, infrastructural development at least reached to major cities. Foreign investment in the real-estate sector has increased. Did the common man have any good effects of this massive development? There is no point in boasting the economic growth solely based on the GDP Per Capita. Inequality of the distribution of wealth has to be considered. If the nation’s wealth is gathered in the hands of few, it is not a good economic model. Of course, it is impossible to equally distribute the wealth in this capitalist market economy but at least adequate wages and concessions for necessities should be implemented. The incumbent government seems to fail in those two areas. They not only lack a method of justified distribution of wealth but also they use the prices of common amenities as a bargaining chip for votes. Major entities of a social welfare model such as health services, education and essential good’s distribution seem to be in disarray. The reason is ether inefficiency in managing those services or the lack of funding for it. The opposition accused the incumbent President of controlling nearly half of the nation’s wealth and neglecting essential but non-lucrative areas such as social welfare, education etc. Rajapaksha neglected two key issues; reforms for the executive presidency and solution for the communal disharmony which resulted in bloody civil war. The minorities have virtually left off from the main political sphere. With all the broken promises, unhealthy development projects and corruption, Rajapaksha’s strategy is to dazzle the public in a sense of security under the arms of Rajapaksha. In return, the people should let Rajapaksha to be powerful as ever. Is that a working strategy in the long run?

The main opposing candidate is Maithreepala Sirisena. It is true that he was battered by the Rajapaksha turned politicians from the UNP during the ‘great-crossover’ which made the UPFA government to secure 2/3^rd majority. It is surprising that none of the Rajapaksha regime knew about his decisive political move. When there was a vacancy for a common candidate, Sarath Nanda Siva, Shirani Bandaranayke and Chandrika Bandaranayke came up as suitors but not Mr Sirisena. He who seems to be with clean hands (at least comparatively clean) is the best bargain for the common opposition ever. His election manifesto has pointed out two key things one is the abolition of the post of Executive Presidency and make the executive responsible for the parliament. The second is addressing corruption. Although there are other petty-promises regarding the right of information, education and social welfare, the sheer idea of curbing the ever powerful executive presidency makes the ‘Sirisena’ package appealing to the majority of educated middle-class Sri Lankans while the working common man might be attracted to the elimination of corruption and re-directing nation’s wealth back to social services.

The public opinion is still fluctuating around the two candidates. The main question for the public who vote for Maithreepala is can he keeps the main two promises he has given. Of course, he can’t do it alone. It all rested in the hands of the main opposition parties to summon up the support in the legislation to implement in changes to the presidential system and reenact the 17^th amendment and other progressive legislations. Maithreepala is to be acted only as the game changer not the person who delivers promises he made. Luckily the joint opposition has a plan; a national government comprising of main opposition parties. If Maithreepala wins the election, a power transformation towards opposition in the parliament is inevitable thus it is not impossible for the opposition with the help of the UPFA members who support Maithreepala’s cause to inflict the desired changes.

Finally, it all comes to the people as in any democratic country. The stakes are very high this time. The people have to make their biggest political gamble in recent times, a gamble which would pay off a great deal and which would ruin their expectations for the generations to come if failed. Public distrust towards the opposition can be understandable when looking at the composition of the Maithreepala supporters. With so much diverse ideologies ranging from Sinhala Buddhist chauvinism to multiculturalism, neo-socialism to capitalism can this loosely-coupled coalition survive in the legislature? In political moves, Sri Lankans always try to stay in their comfort zones preferring relative safely to new and untested ideologies. “Known devil is better than the unknown saint” is the notion of many.

It is really difficult to predict the outcome of this election but when our nation is at crossroads, the people has to make a choice; whether to continue living under the wings of Rajapaksha or to sail to uncharted territory with Maithreepala.