- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall between 125-135 mm in Northeastern regions of the country during 23rd -29th May.
- Between 16-22 May: up to 220 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ratnapura district on the 20th.
- From 13-19 May: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Ampara district recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 15-21 May: up to 22 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 16th, Anuradhapura district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa and Galle districts up to 80 m; Matale and Batticaloa districts up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Trincomalee, Kandy, Ampara, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Matara and Colombo districts up to 50 mm; Mannar, Vavuniya, Gampaha, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm. On the 17th, Colombo district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, Gampaha and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm; Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Badulla districts up to 20 mm. On the 18th, Batticaloa district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 50 mm; Kurunegala, Colombo, Matara, , Ratnapura, Hambantota and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalla, Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 20 mm On the 19th, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts received up to 50 mm; Colombo, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, and Hambantota district up to 30 mm; Puttalam, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts up to 20 mm. On the 20th, Ratnapura district received up to 220 mm of rainfall; Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Kurunegala districts up to 140 mm; Colombo, and Kalutara districts up to 120 mm; Kandy and Gampaha districts up to 90 mm; Puttalam, Matale, Matara and Galle districts up to 60 mm; Hambantota, Monaragala, Badulla, Ampara, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts up to 50 mm; Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm. On the 21st, Kandy district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura district up to 50 mm; Badulla district up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts up to 20 mm. On the 22nd, Vavuniya and Batticaloa districts received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Badulla districts up to 50 mm; Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Monaragala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the country up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall 200-300 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to 150-200 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Matara, Galle and Gampaha districts; and 75-100 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee an Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; up to 100-200 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts; and 50-100 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - above average rainfall conditions were experienced by southwestern regions of the island; and rest of the country experienced below average rainfall. Vavuniya and Jaffna districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Kurunegala districts up to 90 mm. Galle and Matara districts received above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~500 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 300 mm Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; up to ~200 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in Mannar, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 23rd – 29th May: Total rainfall between 125-135 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; between 115-125 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Kurunegala districts; between 105-115 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kandy, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; between 95-105 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Matara and Batticaloa districts; Up to 85 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
From 30th May – 5th Jun: Total rainfall between 85-95 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; between 75-85 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kegalle, Kandy, Gampaha and Colombo districts; between 65-75 mm in Puttalam, Matara and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 55-65 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Badulla and Hambantota districts; between 45-55 mm in Mannar and Monaragala districts; Up to 45 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 25th May: Up to 80 mm of rainfall expected in Kalutara, Gampaha, Kurunegala. Kegalla and Ratnapura districts.
26th May: Up to 80 mm of rainfall expected in Gampaha, Kegalla, and Kurunegala districts,; up to 40 mm in Kalutara, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale and Puttalam districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 23rd -28th May: Total rainfall between 200-250 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; between 150-200 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 100-150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts; between 75-100 mm in Mannar, Kandy and Hambantota districts; between 50-75 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; Up to 50 mm total rainfall rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 18, 2018
In mid-May 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. Most key atmospheric variables also indicated neutral conditions, although the upper level wind anomalies show remnants of La Niña. The subsurface water temperature continued to be above-average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through the September-Novemeber season, with a nearly 50% chance of El Niño development by year’s end. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by year’s end, but forecasters hedge on this due to low confidence at this time of year.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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